Beginner · Safety

P(doom)

Visual diagram · (in preparation) · Math · (in preparation) · Worked example · 3 difficulty levels.

TL;DR. Shorthand for an individual's estimated probability that advanced AI causes a global catastrophe — a fixture of AI-safety debate that spilled into mainstream slang in 2026.

Technical Definition

Shorthand for an individual's estimated probability that advanced AI causes a global catastrophe — a fixture of AI-safety debate that spilled into mainstream slang in 2026.

How it works

P(doom) — 'probability of doom' — started as insider shorthand in AI-safety circles: the percent chance you personally assign to advanced AI causing civilization-scale catastrophe. It crystallized a real disagreement. Some researchers put single-digit percentages and treat safety work as urgent; others put fractions of a percent and prioritize capability and diffusion. The number itself is not scientific — it is a gut estimate under deep uncertainty, which is why critics call it unmeasurable — but it is honest in a way policy language often is not: it forces people to state what they actually believe. By late 2026 the term had leaked into mainstream coverage and casual usage, alongside other AI slang like 'clanker' and 'AI slop', as a compact way to ask 'how worried are you, really?'

Related Concepts

• Reasoning — An AI system's ability to draw logical, multi-step conclusions from given information.
• Generative AI — An AI field focused on creating models that can generate novel and complex content, such as text, images, audio, and video, that is coherent and original.
• AI Red Teaming — A structured process of rigorously testing an AI system, often by adversarial attack simulations, to identify vulnerabilities, biases, and potential for misuse.